The collapse of another democracy in Africa is regrettable. Since their independence in 1960, when their British and Italian administered homelands were hastily united, the Somalis maintained parliamentary institutions and an impartial judiciary. These free institutions survived what amounted to an unsuccessful war with Kenya and Ethiopia to unite the Somali nation throughout the horn of Africa.

Clearly, however, Somali democracy was crumbling under electoral and other abuses. Whether or not the assassination of the President, Abdi Rashid Shermarke, was directly connected with rising opposition, his death brought trouble to a head.

The elections in March a flood of electoral petitions against corruption which were astonishingly dismissed by the Supreme Court after a respected Italian judge had been retired. The government of Mr. Ibrahim Egal, who has been detained, certainly seemed to be overreaching themselves in their desire to stay in power. Admittedly the electoral regulations almost invited the Government to exert pressure. But after the accusations of rigging , there was little possibility of holding elections for a new president which would have been accepted as fair, and in Somalia the president has some vital executive duties. Haji Muse Boghor, whose name was mentioned prominently as Mr. Shermarke`s successor, was known as an associate of Interior Minister, Mr. Yasin Nur.

The takeover by the army and police (as in the anti-Nkrumah coup they worked together) may prove therefore to be popular movement against a ruling clique that had abandoned the rules of fair play as the Somali clans respect them. The new regime will have to be reformists. Fortunately, mineral developments promise a desperately poor land new resources – indeed this prospect may have tempted Mr. Egal`s government to cling to power. But the whole administration needs overhauling, and Somalia`s return to democracy may well take as long as, for example, Sierra Leone`s.

It is worth noting that in Africa Army rule tends to be an interlude. The politicians, suitably chastened for their hubris, are allowed back for their technical skills when the officers see that their popular backing has evaporated. The army in many African states is, in a sense, the alternative government rather than the nominal political “opposition”.

Meanwhile change is in the air among Somalia`s neighbours in the horn of Africa. It is unclear what will follow the leadership of the respected but aged Emporor of Ethiopia and President Kenyatta of Kenya. Bothe countries are threatened with disruption – Ethiopia by Eritrean secessionism, Kenya by anti-Kikuyu feeling. The new Sudanese regime has also signally failed to deal with its southern secessionists. Amid such uncertainties, the Somalis may be glad of military leadership, based on their Russian-equipped but far from Russian-indoctrinated Army, for a period of national consolidation.

Soviet Advisors` role in Somali Army
By Ralph Hawkins
The Times
October 26, 1969

Mogadishu, Oct 26. Russian advisors were with the Somali Army throughout last week`s bloodless takeover of power, it was disclosed here today.

When staff of other embassies were refused permission to go to their offices or to leave them if they were already inside, Soviet diplomats had free movement throughout the capital.

Diplomatic sources disclosed that it was initially assumed that the military take-over was inspired by communists. But now they are reluctant to confirm that opinion. “The Somali Army cannot operate without the Russian advisors. And in that case they may just have been doing their jobs. At any rate it is difficult now to see any communist inspiration in the announced aims of the revolutionary Council,” one sources declared.

Piecing together the events of the Tuesday coup, it is now clear that the army acted alone.

The evening before the revolution the ruling Somali Youth League met in closed session and confirmed Haji Musa Boghor as the party`s nominee for the vacant presidency. Army informers inside the meeting disclosed that Mohammad Ibrahim Egal, the Prime minister, intended to rush through the election at a specially called meeting of the national Assembly the next day. By 2 o`clock the next morning, however, troops went into action. They surrounded and captured the police headquarters, took over the radio station and Ministry of Information, surrounded other public buildings, and cut telephone wires inside and outside Mogadishu.

General Korshel, the police commandant, is believed to have won his freedom, after arrest, by guaranteeing police support to the coup.

Mr. Egal and his cabinet were rounded up, along with the acting President, Sheik Muktar.

Mr Egal is now under heavy guard in his seafront home. An armoured troop carrier blocks the front entrance, and another guards the rear. Troops have sealed off streets around the house.

It is widely alleged in Mogadishu today that the army has discovered a £500,000 deficit in a special Government account handling Somalia oil deals.

This weekend General Mohammad Siyad, Commander-in-Chief of the Army, and spokesman for the Supreme Revolutionary Council, met the press for the first time.

In the officers` club at Army headquarter, on the outskirts of Mogadishu, General Siyad pledged the new regime to continue friendly relations with neighbouring countries.

General Siyad is not thought, by many observers, to be the real power behind the revolution. A group of officers of the rank of lieutenant-colonel and colonel are believed to have been responsible for the planning of the coup.

But Mogadishu itself is being run by captains and majors who have taken over different ministers and appear to have absolute authority.

Even now the Revolutionary Council chooses to remain anonymous, and for the moment the streets of Mogadishu are quiet.

Turmoil in a Land of Proud and Hostile Clans
The New York Times
October 26, 1969

This dispatch was written by a New York Times correspondent who recently visited Somalia

Paris – Of all the countries in Black Africa, only little Somalia – the nine-year-old nation that occupies the almost biblical wilderness of Africa`s Eastern Horn – has anything approaching ethnic unity.

Almost all of its 2.5 million people are Somalis – long-limbed, curly-haired, dark and handsome. But not all Somalis live in Somalia; there are substantial numbers also in Kenya, Ethiopia and French enclave of Djibouti, a valuable port on the Red Sea.

The Somali constitution pledges the country to the reunion of the Somali peoples, and that was a cardinal tenet of government policy in Mogadishu, the sleepy seaside capital, in the early years. The talk of the politics there was to talk of national “irredentism”.

 
Seated portrait shows a smiling Muhammad Haji Ibrahim Egal, the prime minister of Somalia, 1968. New York. (Photo by Bachrach/Getty Images)

Prime Minister Mohammad Ibrahim Egal, an articulate, studious and relatively unbelligerent leader, took office on July 5, 1967, and immediately set about reducing the tensions between Somalia and its neighbors, which had resulted in a series of undeclared border wars. He succeeded in working out a détente with Kenya and with Djibouti, and as recently as last month was conferring with Emperor Haile Selassie on problems in the Ogaden desert of Ethiopia.

Now all of his efforts have been swept away, and it appears possible that new hostilities will poison the area, which is given great strategic significance by its position at the mouth of the Red Sea across from Aden.

On October 15, a man in a policeman`s uniform shot and killed the President, Abdirashid Ali Shermarke, as he visited Las Anod in the extreme northeastern part of the country, which has been devastated by a severe, two-year drought. It was the third political slaying in East Africa this year; previously, Dr. Eduardo Mondlane, leader of the Mozambique Liberation Front, and Tom Mboya, Kenya`s Minister for Economic Development, had been killed.

Last Tuesday morning, a few hours after the President was buried, the Somali police and army seized power, driving Mr. Egal from office and arresting him and other ministers. The country`s name was immediately changed to “the Democratic Republic of Somalia” – a formulation that in Africa usually, but not always, signifies an intention to move to the left.

It is not clear whether there was any connection between the assassination and the coup d`etat, and the country`s new leaders have done little to tip their hand. But the military and police officers have praised Mr. Shermarke, an unreformed irredentist, and locked up Mr. Egal, the negotiator.

If renewed militancy in Somalia is bad news for neighboring countries, it is equally unfortunate for the Somalis themselves, even though a Soviet diplomat who was on the scene for the coup said that it “seemed to have wide popular support.” The reason is that continued diversion of the country`s limited resources into military spending, without any real hope of battlefield success, can only postpone Somalia`s marginal chances of economic development.

Much had been made of deposits of uranium about 200 miles from Mogadishu, but it is not yet clear whether these will be commercially exploitable. In the meantime, Somalia`s economy depends on the export of bananas to Italy – a trade that has been made more difficult by the closing of the Suez Canal.

The gross national product works out to be about $55 per capita, low even by the hard scrabble standards of Africa. Despite copious aid from the east and West (by some reckoning, Somalia has received more aid per capita in the last decade than any country in the world), the country still lacks roads, schools, port facilities, housing, water, hospitals and almost everything else.

One everyday sight in Mogadishu serves to set the scene. Except for the very rich, the capital`s 200,000 people must buy their water, day by day, form peddlers who lead mules bearing aluminum cans through the crowed streets.

Why was Mr. Egal swept from office? He himself remarked about two months ago that his time was limited, that he had produce both peace some measure of prosperity relatively quickly, and the coup-makers may have felt that that was beyond his reach. He is also charged with corruption and election fraud, but that alone has seldom been enough to bring down an African regime.

In any event, he appeared to many foreigners to be the ablest man on the scene, and whoever emerges as the new strong will find as difficult as he did the realities of running the country – balancing the interests of Somalia`s dozens of proud and antagonistic clans, working out a modus Vivendi with its neighbors, and finding some way to make its sands and scrub a viable place to live.

 
BAGHDAD, IRAQ: A picture dated 29 May 1990 of Somali President Mohamed Siad Barre during an extraordinary Arab Summit. (Photo credit should read MIKE NELSON/AFP/Getty Images)

Hooyo Abyan ayaa waxaa la-sheegay in uu soo wajahay maseer, kadib markii saygeeda “Ninkeeda” uu aaday dalka Soomaaliya, kaa oo la-sheegay in uu halkaasi kusoo guursaday haweeney kale, hase ahaatee markii ay maqashay hooyo Abyan Faarax ayaa waxaa la-sheegay in’ay isku dardarsan tahay, taa oo keentay in iyada iyo caruurtii ay dhashayba ay guriga iskusoo xiraan.

Caruurta oo tiradoodu ay gaareysay shan, ayaa waxay laba kamid ah ay u dhinteen gaajo, bacdamaa aysan helin wax cuno iyo cabaal ah, iyagoo dhawr maal-mood ku xirnaa qol, taa oo keentay in laba kamid ah caruurtii ay gaajo u dhintaan.

Xilli seddexdii kale ee caruurta ay sakaraad yihiin ayaa waxay hooyo Abyan wacday nin lagu sheegay in uu adeerkeyd yahay, kaa oo durbaba ciidamadda ammaanka ee Indiana ku war geliyay dhacdada argagax leh ee ku dhacday qoyskaasi Soomaaliyeed.

Ciidamadda ammaanka ayaa durbaba goobtaasi soo gaaray, iyagoo horey usii ka xeystay hooyo Abyan adeerkeyd iyo dhamaan qoyskii ay mashaqada ku dhacday, cabaar kadib ayaa waxaa la-sheegay in lasii daayay hooyo Abyan adeerkeyd iyo laba wiil kale oo la-socotay.

Ciidamadda ammaanka ayaa waxay baaritaano ay ku hayaan hooyo Abyan, sidoo kale waxay sheegeyn caruurtii geeriyootay in’ay iyana baaritaano kala duwan ay ku sameyn doonaan, iyadoo afhayeen u hadlay ciidamadda ammaanka uu sheegay inaanan caruurta lagu dilin, dhagax, xabad ama toorey, hase ahaatee wuxuu sheegay inay ku sameyn doonaan baaritaano kala duwan.

Sidoo kale wuxuu sheegay seddexda kale ee caruurta in iyana iminka lagu dabiibaayo xaruumaha caafimaad ee ku yaalla gobolka, isla-markaana wuxuu rajo ka muujiyay inay caafimaadi doonaan.

Isku-soo wada-duuboo dhacdadaan ayaa waxaa walaac ka muujiyay jaaliyadaha Somaliyeed ee ku nool cariga Maraykanka, iyagoo sheegay inay ka xun yihiin maqashada soo wajahday qoyskaasi Soomaaliyeed.

Mr Cameron, 43, is in Downing Street after travelling to Buckingham Palace to formally accept the Queen’s request to form the next government.

He said he aimed to form a “proper and full coalition” with the Lib Dems to provide “strong, stable government”.

His party won the most seats in the UK general election last week, but not an overall majority.

In a speech at Downing Street, Mr Cameron said he and Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg would “put aside party differences and work hard for the common good and the national interest”.

He paid tribute to outgoing PM Gordon Brown for his long years of public service and said he would tackle Britain’s “pressing problems” – the deficit, social problems and reforming the political system.

Mr Cameron stressed there would be “difficult decisions” but said he wanted to take people through them to reach “better times ahead”.

The Conservatives have been in days of negotiations with the Lib Dems – who were also negotiating with Labour – after the UK election resulted in a hung parliament.

But the Lib Dems said talks with Labour failed because “the Labour Party never took seriously the prospects of forming a progressive, reforming government”.

Formal agreement

A spokesman said key members of the Labour team “gave every impression of wanting the process to fail” and the party had made “no attempt at all” to agree a common approach on issues like schools funding and tax reform.

“Certain key Labour cabinet ministers were determined to undermine any agreement by holding out on policy issues and suggesting that Labour would not deliver on proportional representation and might not marshal the votes to secure even the most modest form of electoral reform,” he said.

I loved the job not for its prestige, its titles and its ceremony – which I do not love at all. No, I loved the job for its potential to make this country I love fairer
Gordon Brown

Brown resigns as prime minister
Gordon Brown’s rise and fall
The David Cameron story

However Labour’s Lord Mandelson told the BBC they had been “up for” a deal with the Lib Dems, but they had “created so many barriers and obstacles that perhaps they thought their interests lay on the Tory side, on the Conservative side, rather than the progressive side”.

After it became clear the talks had failed, Mr Brown tendered his resignation and said he wished the next prime minister well.

In an emotional resignation statement outside Number Ten, Mr Brown thanked his staff, his wife Sarah and their children, who joined the couple as they left for Buckingham Palace.

Mr Brown said it had been “a privilege to serve” adding: “I loved the job not for its prestige, its titles and its ceremony – which I do not love at all. No, I loved the job for its potential to make this country I love fairer, more tolerant, more green, more democratic, more prosperous and more just – truly a greater Britain.”

‘My fault’

He also paid tribute to the courage of the armed forces, adding: “I will never forget all those who have died in honour and whose families today live in grief.”

Later he thanked Labour activists and MPs for all their efforts and told them Labour’s general election performance was “my fault, and my fault alone”.

The Lib Dem and Conservative teams met for hours of negotiations at the Cabinet Office on Tuesday – four days after the UK general election resulted in a hung parliament.

The talks resumed after Lib Dem negotiators met a Labour team, which followed Mr Brown’s announcement on Monday that he would step down as Labour leader by September.

But there were signs throughout the afternoon that the two parties – who together would still not command an overall majority in the House of Commons – would not reach a deal.

Several senior Labour figures, including John Reid and David Blunkett, warned against a coalition with the Lib Dems, particularly if the price involved offering them a referendum on changing the voting system to proportional representation.

After Mr Brown announced he would be stepping down and would see if Labour could do a deal with the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives upped their offer to a promise of a referendum on changing the voting system from existing first past the post system to AV.

Reported Bye Zubeyr Macalim Cabdulqadir Webmaster@hidaha.com

William Gallas Out Injured For The Remainder Of The Premier League Season

Defender joins Fabregas on sidelines for run-in.

By Zubeyr Macalim Nairobi Tell +254722102233

• William Gallas

Arsenal defender William Gallas will miss the rest of the season with a calf injury he sustained against Barcelona, manager Arsene Wenger has confirmed.

The French international had missed eight games with a similar injury before his surprising return against the Spanish side in the Champions League on Wednesday, but limped off in the first half having aggravated the injury.

Initial reports said the defender would miss three weeks, but Wenger confirmed the club’s medical staff have assessed the injury further, and now believe he will miss the remainder of the Premier League campaign.

“Gallas is longer than three weeks, I would say five weeks,” Wenger told the press on Friday.

“It was a gamble which did not pay off and was a mistake, yes.

“He could be back maybe quicker, but I just give myself five weeks because three weeks is a minimum and we will have to be a bit more cautious with him.

“So when we go to the Champions League final, he still has a chance to play.”

Gallas is Arsenal’s second-best defender, according to the Castrol Rankings, with only Thomas Vermaelen ahead of him, the Belgian at No.75 to Gallas’ No.98.

Wenger denied suggestions that Andrey Arshavin would also miss the remainder of the campaign, sticking to the initial prognosis that the Russian forward would miss “21 days”.

And there was some good news for the Gunners as defender Gael Clichy (back) and midfielder Denilson (groin) are both fit to play in Saturday’s game against Wolverhampton Wanderers.

“Arsenal:Injury News! 

Please note The injury news on Arsenal.com is updated only from Arsène Wenger’s press conferences and his interviews with Arsenal TV Online.

For clarification purposes, this is dated.

Cesc Fabregas
April 2
Following a scan on Thursday afternoon, the Club confirmed that Cesc Fabregas has suffered a small crack in his right fibula as a result of the collision with Barcelona defender Carles Puyol during Wednesday evening’s match. As a consequence, Cesc will miss the remainder of the domestic campaign as he will be out of action for at six weeks.

William Gallas
April 2
William could miss the rest of the season with a calf injury. “I would say five weeks,” commentted Wenger on April 2. “He could be back maybe quicker but I just give myself five weeks because three weeks is a minimum and we will have to be a bit more cautious with him.”

Andrey Arshavin
April 2
Andrey suffered a calf injury against Barcelona and despite report suggesting he will miss the rest of the season, Wenger confirmed he should return to action in three weeks. “I don’t think [he will miss the remained of the season],” said the manager on April 2. “Let’s count 21 days. It is April 2. April 23 he should be capable to play. Possibly Man City. He should be available for that game.”

Aaron Ramsey
March 30
Aaron was stretchered off during Arsenal’s 3-1 win at Stoke on Saturday after sustaining fractures to the tibia and fibula in his right leg. He had surgery the following day and will miss the rest of this season. “It is too far away to set any realistic deadline [for Ramsey to return],” said Wenger speaking exclusively to TV Online on Thursday, March 4. “Let’s let him heal. The good news is the surgery went well and it is not a career-threatening injury. But it is two breaks and to get back to your best you need not only to practice again but you need time to recover your co-ordination. He is a young boy and he will recover from this but it is a bad injury.”

Robin Van Persie
March 30
Robin has been out since November after suffering ankle ligament damage during an international friendly against Italy and Arsène Wenger believes he could return to training soon. “I think he will be back [at the Club] this week,” said the manager after the win over West Ham. “We sent our fitness coach out to Holland where he has been having his rehabilitation. Physically he looks very sharp but we aim at least to wait a month.”

Kieran Gibbs
March 30
Arsène Wenger admits that Kieran Gibbs could return by the end of the season after a second operation on the broken metatarsal he suffered during the game against Standard Liege on November 24. “There is a little chance [that Gibbs will be fit before the end of the season] if all goes well now,” said Wenger on February 25.

Johan Djourou
March 30
Johan suffered a knee injury while on international duty in August and is expected to return to action in two months time. “It is still two months for Johan,” said Wenger on Thursday, February 4. “We have to be patient with him. He is working well and progressing well. But he is not an immediate resource.”

BY Zubeyr Macalim Email Subayr@hotmail.com

            Sports news uefa champions league             Hidaha.com

Arsenal will give captain Cesc Fabregas every chance to recover from a heavy bruising to his leg and knee as the influential Spain midfielder aims to face his boyhood club in the first leg of the quarter-final at Emirates Stadium on Wednesday night.

Barcelona, though, are nevertheless expected to progress into the semi-finals at the expense of the English outfit, as Lionel Messi, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and a certain former Arsenal skipper Thierry Henry look to take a lead back to the Nou Camp for the second leg.

Wenger, however, is confident his youngsters can rise to the challenge and give Barcelona a run for their money.

“If we produce the best performance, then we can we can beat any side in the world,” the Arsenal manager declared.

“What you want from your team is not to worry too much about the strengths of Barcelona, but more focus on our strengths and our qualities.

“We must be brave, go for it and then we have every chance.”

The Gunners boss continued: “I do not deny their quality, because Barcelona have an exceptional team – but we are an exceptional team as well.

“The form of the day, the desire, the belief, how much we play for each other will make the difference.

“We have, of course, to cancel their strengths, but Barcelona will have the same problem.

“They are an individual and collective threat, but so are we.

“I am confident we can respond to the expectation of all people who love football, but also our fans because they want us to do something special and we want to deliver that.”

Wenger will wait as long as possible before deciding whether Fabregas, who picked up his injury during the 1-1 draw at Birmingham on Saturday, should feature.

“The medical staff tell me there is still a chance he will be available, but that will decided in the warm up, which tells you how late we will leave it,” said Wenger.

“However, if he is not capable to play, I would not even put him on the bench.

“We have 19 players in the squad, that means I have considered the possibility of ruling him out completely.”

Wenger added: “Cesc is desperate to play in every single game,” said the Arsenal boss, “and who wouldn’t want to play in a game like this?

“He always wants to play every day and I believe it is the mark of a great player that they want to do that and are happy when they do.”

Henry, now 32, joined Barcelona in the summer of 2007, after a superb Arsenal career which saw him lead the side against the Spaniards in the previous season’s Champions League final.

Despite now being utilised more often from the bench by Pep Guardiola, Wenger maintains: “Thierry is still a threat because he is an exceptional talent.

“We are happy to see him back at the Emirates and he will get the warm welcome he deserves.

“However, when the game starts it will be a quarter-final of the Champions League where we will of course give everything to beat him.”

Defender William Gallas, meanwhile, is in line for a first appearance since the start of February after recovering from a calf problem.

Abukar Arman, appointed the Somali U.S. special envoy on Feb. 6, plans to re-establish the ties that disintegrated during clan warfare that tore Somalia apart in the early 1990s and culminated in a 1993 battle in Mogadishu that killed 18 U.S. soldiers and hundreds of Somalis.

“The world has changed – the lack of security in one area does not mean it is contained in that neighborhood,” Arman told The Associated Press. “Everything that happens on one side of the world indeed affects everywhere else.”

Arman also wants to work with the tens of thousands of Somali immigrants living in several U.S. cities, including Columbus, Minneapolis, Seattle and Portland, Maine. At least 20 young Somalis from the Minneapolis area were allegedly recruited by terrorist groups in Somalia, and Arman says he wants to work with Somali groups here to address that problem.

“Finding ways to address these issues without creating more problems will be helpful to both countries and both peoples,” Arman said.

The appointment of Arman, 50, of Columbus, illustrates the extent to which Somalia has become a country many of whose citizens are scattered unwillingly across the globe.

Arman, until recently a writer and a work force development instructor for the city schools, came to the U.S. in 1980 and has lived in Columbus since 1994. He has blogged for the Huffington Post and has written about Islamic issues for several publications, including Aljazeera and The American Muslim.

The civil war ended Arman’s plans to return home in the late 1980s after attending Houston Baptist University. He is married with four children. He plans to commute between Columbus and Washington, D.C.

Arman recognizes the challenges before him. Somalia has not had an effective government in almost two decades. The current administration controls only a small section of the capital with the help of some 5,000 African Union peacekeepers. The government is preparing an offensive to try to wrest back control of much of the capital from the insurgent group al-Shabab, which holds most of southern and central Somalia.

Somali pirates have seized control of several ships off the country’s coast in recent years, holding crew members hostage for ransom.

Somali president Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed visited several U.S. cities with large Somali populations last fall, including Columbus, trying to drum up support for his beleaguered government and to ask Somali immigrants for help.

Arman has an almost impossible task before him given the country’s problems, said Ahmed Samatar, an international affairs professor at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minn.

“The transitional federal government under Sherif has no legs to stand on,” Samatar said. “What then would an ambassador represent given that?”

Arman says people who say Somalia’s problems are too great to try to fix are guilty of lazy thinking.

“We’ve tried that line for the last 20 years – it didn’t get us anywhere,” he said. “It’s a tall order, but somebody has to do it, somebody has to march with confidence towards that goal.”

Those are the questions hovering over several recent developments in the Afghanistan war: the capture of Afghan Taliban military leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar,  the killing of two key Taliban commanders  and an increase in drone attacks.

But several authorities on the eight-year Afghanistan war say no one should expect to see bin Laden in handcuffs anytime soon.

“No, I don’t think we’re getting any closer,” says Stephen Tanner, author of “Afghanistan: A Military History from Alexander the Great to the War against the Taliban.”

Tanner says the ISI, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Agency, knows where bin Laden is hiding, but is not ready to say.

“We got to make a deal with Pakistan because I’m convinced that he’s [bin Laden] protected by the ISI,” Tanner says.

Tanner says that rogue elements within the ISI – if not the Pakistani government – may be using bin Laden as a “trump card” to exert leverage over the United States. Tanner says that Pakistani leaders are concerned that the U.S. will draw closer to India, Pakistan’s chief rival.

Flashing the bin Laden trump card will insure that the U.S. will continue to send aid to Pakistan because it considers it a bulwark against radical Islam, Tanner says. Without the bin Laden trump card, though, Pakistan would be in danger of being abandoned by the U.S., Tanner says.

“I just think it’s impossible after all this time to not know where he is. The ISI knows what’s going on in its own country,” Tanner says. “We’re talking about a 6-foot-4-inch Arab with a coterie of bodyguards.”

Even if the U.S. draws a bead on bin Laden, he won’t be captured alive, says Thomas Mockatis, author of, “Osama bin Laden: A Biography.”

Mockatis says bin Laden has bodyguards who are tasked with shooting him if his capture seems imminent.

“Killing bin Laden would not be a good thing,” Mockatis says. “He’s already a hero. Killing bin Laden would just create one more martyr.”

Many in the Arab world wouldn’t even believe reports that bin Laden had been killed, Mockatis says. They would dismiss the news as CIA propaganda and any photographs of bin Laden’s body as fabrications.

Killing bin Laden is important, but what’s more vital is the ongoing U.S. campaign to “constrict” al Qaeda’s operation, Mockatis says. The U.S. has become more successful at taking away al Qaeda’s safe havens, their ability to move agents and finance operations around the globe.

“It’s a grinding down process, the way you deal with organized crime,” Mockatis says. “You constantly keep the pressure on.”

That pressure may have led to several purported bin Laden sightings, says Ivan Kenneally, an assistant professor at Rochester Institute of Technology in New York who teaches courses on American foreign policy and war and the state.

Some of those alleged sightings have placed bin Laden in Chitral, Pakistan, the northwest region of the country. One bin Laden tip from last fall was credible enough that the U.S. military and Pakistani special forces cordoned off  an area and kept it under 24-hour surveillance by drones, Kenneally says.

“There has been more general information that bin Laden is moving about North Waziristan, complicating his detection by constantly moving back and forth over the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan,” Kenneally says.

Finding bin Laden might not come down to super-sleuthing or aggressive military action, says William Martel, associate professor of international security studies at Tufts University’s Fletcher School in Massachusetts.

“You need a healthy dose of luck to actually produce the capture of someone like that who doesn’t want to be captured,” says Martel, also author of “Victory in War: Foundations of Modern Military Policy.”

Martel, like others interviewed for this blog post, says that bin Laden is probably still alive.

It may actually be better if bin Laden isn’t captured, Martel says. The debate over handling bin Laden in captivity would be explosive.

“Do we read him his rights; do we run him through a military tribunal or civilian courts?” Martel says. “Capturing him would pose more problems than not ……hidaha .com

From CNN.com

Pirates said they had also seized a fishing vessel.

Andrew Mwangura of the East African Seafarers’ Assistance Programme said the 5,136 deadweight tonne al Nisr al Saudi was seized on Monday and was now off the Somali coast.

Pirates also told Reuters they had captured a fishing vessel in the Indian Ocean, but no further details were immediately available.

Mwangura said the Saudi tanker was on its way from Japan to Jeddah with one Greek and 13 Sri Lankan crew.

Emboldened by rising ransom payments, Somali pirates have stepped up attacks in recent months, making tens of millions of dollars by seizing vessels in the Indian Ocean and the busy Gulf of Aden shipping lanes.

The armed pirate gangs operate far out to sea and have managed to dodge naval warships deployed to combat their activities by casting their nets as far south as the Seychelles.

Foreign navies have been deployed off the Gulf of Aden since the start of 2009 and have operated convoys, as well as setting up a transit corridors through the most dangerous waters.

But their forces have been stretched over the vast expanses of water, including the Indian Ocean, leaving merchant vessels vulnerable

Abukar Arman, appointed the Somali U.S. special envoy on Feb. 6, plans to re-establish the ties that disintegrated during clan warfare that tore Somalia apart in the early 1990s and culminated in a 1993 battle in Mogadishu that killed 18 U.S. soldiers and hundreds of Somalis.

“The world has changed – the lack of security in one area does not mean it is contained in that neighborhood,” Arman told The Associated Press. “Everything that happens on one side of the world indeed affects everywhere else.”

Arman also wants to work with the tens of thousands of Somali immigrants living in several U.S. cities, including Columbus, Minneapolis, Seattle and Portland, Maine. At least 20 young Somalis from the Minneapolis area were allegedly recruited by terrorist groups in Somalia, and Arman says he wants to work with Somali groups here to address that problem.

“Finding ways to address these issues without creating more problems will be helpful to both countries and both peoples,” Arman said.

The appointment of Arman, 50, of Columbus, illustrates the extent to which Somalia has become a country many of whose citizens are scattered unwillingly across the globe.

Arman, until recently a writer and a work force development instructor for the city schools, came to the U.S. in 1980 and has lived in Columbus since 1994. He has blogged for the Huffington Post and has written about Islamic issues for several publications, including Aljazeera and The American Muslim.

The civil war ended Arman’s plans to return home in the late 1980s after attending Houston Baptist University. He is married with four children. He plans to commute between Columbus and Washington, D.C.

Arman recognizes the challenges before him. Somalia has not had an effective government in almost two decades. The current administration controls only a small section of the capital with the help of some 5,000 African Union peacekeepers. The government is preparing an offensive to try to wrest back control of much of the capital from the insurgent group al-Shabab, which holds most of southern and central Somalia.

Somali pirates have seized control of several ships off the country’s coast in recent years, holding crew members hostage for ransom.

Somali president Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed visited several U.S. cities with large Somali populations last fall, including Columbus, trying to drum up support for his beleaguered government and to ask Somali immigrants for help.

Arman has an almost impossible task before him given the country’s problems, said Ahmed Samatar, an international affairs professor at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minn.

“The transitional federal government under Sherif has no legs to stand on,” Samatar said. “What then would an ambassador represent given that?”

Arman says people who say Somalia’s problems are too great to try to fix are guilty of lazy thinking.

“We’ve tried that line for the last 20 years – it didn’t get us anywhere,” he said. “It’s a tall order, but somebody has to do it, somebody has to march with confidence towards that goal.”